In 2024, urea demand in Vietnam is forecasted to recover after facing two years of price turbulence. However, this growth is expected to be moderate due to high urea prices in the first half of 2023. AgroMonitor predicts domestic urea consumption in Vietnam in 2024 to be in the range of 2.05-2.11 million tons, an increase from 1.74-1.93 million tons in 2022-2023.

Vietnam's urea exports in 2024 are forecasted to see slight growth or stability compared to 2023, as global nitrogen supply is expected to increase. The Asian region is expected to witness increased production from new urea plants, particularly in India and Bangladesh, which could introduce additional competition for Vietnam, although the Cambodian market still holds export potential. Vietnam's urea exports in 2024 are estimated to be in the range of 550-570 thousand tons.

Domestic urea supply is projected to reach 2.2-2.4 million tons. Forecasted urea imports in 2024 are lower than in 2023, estimated at 200-250 thousand tons, reflecting a slowdown after a lively year and depending on competition from domestic production and pricing policies.

In 2024, it is forecasted that DAP imports to Vietnam may increase compared to 2023, with the potential for a strong recovery in the latter half of the year due to factors such as China's export policies and developments in the Red Sea region. It is estimated that DAP imports will reach 440-460 thousand tons. China, being the largest supplier, is expected to limit exports in the first quarter but increase them after the spring season. Russia, another important source, will continue to impose export taxes, with shipping costs expected to rise due to tensions in the Red Sea. South Korea, although the third-largest market, still faces issues with high Cadmium content in the product.

Regarding demand, the world DAP prices are expected to increase in the first quarter of 2024 but decrease thereafter, supporting domestic DAP consumption, particularly in the early second quarter as the Spring-Summer crop season begins. Global demand for P₂0₅-containing fertilizers is also expected to increase slightly, with increases anticipated in East Asia, South Asia, and West Asia. Domestic DAP consumption is projected to rise to 620-660 thousand tons, compared to 530 thousand tons in 2023.

Domestic DAP production is expected to increase, with plants adjusting production according to supply demand dynamics and price trends. The estimated production volume is 400-420 thousand tons, an increase from 362 thousand tons in 2023.

The outlook for the potash supply in Vietnam in 2024 is expected to be influenced by global supply and potash pricing trends. The potash price is forecasted to stabilize after a downward trend from late 2023 to early 2024, moving closer to pre-energy crisis levels. AgroMonitor predicts that potash domestic consumption for crops and production materials will increase, with estimated consumption reaching 250-300 thousand tons for crops and 500-550 thousand tons for production materials.

The production volume of MOP in Laos, with planned production expansions, is expected to increase the supply to the Southeast Asian market and impact regional trade flows. This could create price pressure and competition with other suppliers. It is anticipated that Vietnam's potash imports in 2024 will rise to the range of 800-850 thousand tons, reflecting increased imports from Laos and the potential decrease in imports from countries such as Russia, Canada, Israel, Belarus, and Uzbekistan due to geopolitical issues and possible increases in transportation costs.

In 2024, both consumption and production of NPK fertilizers in Vietnam are forecasted to increase. Consumption is expected to grow by 11-15% to reach 2.9-3 million tons, while production is projected to increase by 1-3% to reach 2.63-2.65 million tons. Specifically, production volumes of NPK Ca Mau and NPK Phu My are expected to rise.

Regarding imports, it is anticipated that they will either remain stable or experience a slight decrease compared to 2023, with the main sources being China and Russia. The forecast for NPK fertilizer imports in 2024 is 500-550 thousand tons, a reduction from 548 thousand tons in 2023, continuing the trend of product diversification and distribution of imported goods.